Empirical Approach for Modelling Tree Phenology in Mixed Forests Using Remote Sensing

Phenological events are good indicators of the effects of climate change, since phenological phases are sensitive to changes in environmental conditions. Although several national phenological networks monitor the phenology of different plant species, direct observations can only be conducted on individual trees, which cannot be easily extended over large and continuous areas. Remote sensing has often been applied to model phenology for large areas, focusing mostly on pure forests in which it is relatively easier to match vegetation indices with ground observations. In mixed forests, phenology modelling from remote sensing is often limited to land surface phenology, which consists of an overall phenology of all tree species present in a pixel. The potential of remote sensing for modelling the phenology of individual tree species in mixed forests remains underexplored. In this study, we applied the seasonal midpoint (SM) method with MODIS GPP to model the start of season (SOS) and the end of season (EOS) of six different tree species in Slovenian mixed forests. First, substitute locations were identified for each combination of observation station and plant species based on similar environmental conditions (aspect, slope, and altitude) and tree species of interest, and used to retrieve the remote sensing information used in the SM method after fitting the best of a Gaussian and two double logistic functions to each year of GPP time series. Then, the best thresholds were identified for SOS and EOS, and the results were validated using cross-validation. The results show clearly that the usual threshold of 0.5 is not best in most cases, especially for estimating the EOS. Despite the difficulty in modelling the phenology of different tree species in a mixed forest using remote sensing, it was possible to estimate SOS and EOS with moderate errors as low as <8 days (Fagus sylvatica and Tilia sp.) and <10 days (Fagus sylvatica and Populus tremula), respectively

High Gas-Phase Methanesulfonic Acid Production in the OH-Initiated Oxidation of Dimethyl Sulfide at Low Temperatures

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) influences climate via cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) formation resulting from its oxidation products (mainly methanesulfonic acid, MSA, and sulfuric acid, H2SO4). Despite their importance, accurate prediction of MSA and H2SO4from DMS oxidation remains challenging. With comprehensive experiments carried out in the Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets (CLOUD) chamber at CERN, we show that decreasing the temperature from +25 to -10 °C enhances the gas-phase MSA production by an order of magnitude from OH-initiated DMS oxidation, while H2SO4production is modestly affected. This leads to a gas-phase H2SO4-to-MSA ratio (H2SO4/MSA) smaller than one at low temperatures, consistent with field observations in polar regions. With an updated DMS oxidation mechanism, we find that methanesulfinic acid, CH3S(O)OH, MSIA, forms large amounts of MSA. Overall, our results reveal that MSA yields are a factor of 2-10 higher than those predicted by the widely used Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.3.1), and the NOxeffect is less significant than that of temperature. Our updated mechanism explains the high MSA production rates observed in field observations, especially at low temperatures, thus, substantiating the greater importance of MSA in the natural sulfur cycle and natural CCN formation. Our mechanism will improve the interpretation of present-day and historical gas-phase H2SO4/MSA measurements

High Gas-Phase Methanesulfonic Acid Production in the OH-Initiated Oxidation of Dimethyl Sulfide at Low Temperatures

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) influences climate via cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) formation resulting from its oxidation products (mainly methanesulfonic acid, MSA, and sulfuric acid, H$_{2}$SO$_{4}$). Despite their importance, accurate prediction of MSA and H$_{2}$SO$_{4}$ from DMS oxidation remains challenging. With comprehensive experiments carried out in the Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets (CLOUD) chamber at CERN, we show that decreasing the temperature from +25 to −10 °C enhances the gas-phase MSA production by an order of magnitude from OH-initiated DMS oxidation, while H$_{2}$SO$_{4}$ production is modestly affected. This leads to a gas-phase H$_{2}$SO$_{4}$-to-MSA ratio (H$_{2}$SO$_{4}$/MSA) smaller than one at low temperatures, consistent with field observations in polar regions. With an updated DMS oxidation mechanism, we find that methanesulfinic acid, CH$_{3}$S(O)OH, MSIA, forms large amounts of MSA. Overall, our results reveal that MSA yields are a factor of 2–10 higher than those predicted by the widely used Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.3.1), and the NO$_{x}$ effect is less significant than that of temperature. Our updated mechanism explains the high MSA production rates observed in field observations, especially at low temperatures, thus, substantiating the greater importance of MSA in the natural sulfur cycle and natural CCN formation. Our mechanism will improve the interpretation of present-day and historical gas-phase H$_{2}$SO$_{4}$/MSA measurements

High Gas-Phase Methanesulfonic Acid Production in the OH-Initiated Oxidation of Dimethyl Sulfide at Low Temperatures

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) influences climate via cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) formation resulting from its oxidation products (mainly methanesulfonic acid, MSA, and sulfuric acid, H2SO4). Despite their importance, accurate prediction of MSA and H2SO4from DMS oxidation remains challenging. With comprehensive experiments carried out in the Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets (CLOUD) chamber at CERN, we show that decreasing the temperature from +25 to -10 °C enhances the gas-phase MSA production by an order of magnitude from OH-initiated DMS oxidation, while H2SO4production is modestly affected. This leads to a gas-phase H2SO4-to-MSA ratio (H2SO4/MSA) smaller than one at low temperatures, consistent with field observations in polar regions. With an updated DMS oxidation mechanism, we find that methanesulfinic acid, CH3S(O)OH, MSIA, forms large amounts of MSA. Overall, our results reveal that MSA yields are a factor of 2-10 higher than those predicted by the widely used Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.3.1), and the NOxeffect is less significant than that of temperature. Our updated mechanism explains the high MSA production rates observed in field observations, especially at low temperatures, thus, substantiating the greater importance of MSA in the natural sulfur cycle and natural CCN formation. Our mechanism will improve the interpretation of present-day and historical gas-phase H2SO4/MSA measurements.publishedVersionPeer reviewe

High Gas-Phase Methanesulfonic Acid Production in the OH-Initiated Oxidation of Dimethyl Sulfide at Low Temperatures

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) influences climate via cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) formation resulting from its oxidation products (mainly methanesulfonic acid, MSA, and sulfuric acid, H2SO4). Despite their importance, accurate prediction of MSA and H2SO4from DMS oxidation remains challenging. With comprehensive experiments carried out in the Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets (CLOUD) chamber at CERN, we show that decreasing the temperature from +25 to -10 °C enhances the gas-phase MSA production by an order of magnitude from OH-initiated DMS oxidation, while H2SO4production is modestly affected. This leads to a gas-phase H2SO4-to-MSA ratio (H2SO4/MSA) smaller than one at low temperatures, consistent with field observations in polar regions. With an updated DMS oxidation mechanism, we find that methanesulfinic acid, CH3S(O)OH, MSIA, forms large amounts of MSA. Overall, our results reveal that MSA yields are a factor of 2-10 higher than those predicted by the widely used Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.3.1), and the NOxeffect is less significant than that of temperature. Our updated mechanism explains the high MSA production rates observed in field observations, especially at low temperatures, thus, substantiating the greater importance of MSA in the natural sulfur cycle and natural CCN formation. Our mechanism will improve the interpretation of present-day and historical gas-phase H2SO4/MSA measurements.Peer reviewe

VITICULTURAL POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT AND ITS SPATIAL DELINEATION ANALYSIS IN GORIŠKA BRDA VITICULTURAL AREA

International audienceContext and purpose of the study - Viticultural potential has a complex conditioning, determined by relief, soil, climate and lithology. Delineation of viticultural potential from vineyard areas is essential for the purpose to collect the necessary data for viticultural zoning. Using this data, we can achieve greater yield quality, which is the most important criteria in viticulture. The main purpose of this research is characterizing of viticultural potential and zoning of homogeneous viticultural zones in Goriška Brda region by assessing the suitability of defined ecological factors.Material and methods - Fourteen environmental factors, which represent relief, climate, soil and lithology, were used to evaluate and determine the viticultural potential which is further delimited in homogeneous viticultural zones within Goriška Brda study site, characterized by a mild Mediterranean climate. Each zone was described in terms of its viticultural potential, which expresses the types of wine that can be produced according to its ecological suitability. The spatial distributions of the environmental parameters were achieved using GIS-based multicriteria methodology. Spatial analysis was conducted at fine scale.Results - Inside of study area, there were defined three zones with different viticultural potential, indicating the wine types that can be produced: a zone suitable for quality white wines and red table wines; a zone suitable for quality white wines; a zone suitable for sparkling and white table wines and wines for distillates. These zones make up the viticulture potential map of Goriška Brda study site. The south-western area, closer to the Mediterranean Sea, was defined as mainly suitable to produce quality white wines. Nevertheless, the north-eastern part was defined as suitable for production of mainly white table wines, sparkling wines, and wines for distillates. This research provides a map of viticultural potential and delimitate viticultural homogeneous zones for the winegrowing area of Goriška Brda. It also provides a spatial analysis of the ecological structure with suitability of ecological factors for different wine types. The results reveal the high spatial variability of the viticultural potential when analyzed at fine scale

Phenological patterns of flowering across biogeographical regions of Europe

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Pan European Phenological database (PEP725): a single point of access for European data

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European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern

Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade1 in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species' phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding months (mean advance of spring/summer by 2.5 days°C1, delay of leaf colouring and fall by 1.0 day°C1). The pattern of observed change in spring efficiently matches measured national warming across 19 European countries (correlation coefficient r=−0.69, P<0.001)